Financial pressures and financial sustainability

These pages summarise the latest data on the financial health and sustainability of providers, what we expect providers to do and our approach to regulation in this area. 

Latest modelling

Our latest update shows continued pressure on higher education providers.  

Student recruitment for 2025-26

• UK undergraduate acceptances through UCAS grew by 3.1 per cent, below the forecast of 4.1 per cent, but better than pessimistic scenarios.
• International student recruitment increased by 6 per cent, still short of the 8.6 per cent forecast.
• Significant variation exists: our modelling of recent recruitment data suggests larger research-intensive universities saw 9.9 per cent growth in UK undergraduates but a 7.0 per cent decline in the number of international postgraduate students. 
• Excluding research-intensive and medium-sized institutions, UK recruitment has fallen and many providers have not recruited in the way they expected.

Financial impact

• Without taking mitigating action, 124 providers (45 per cent) could report deficits in 2025–26 (up from 96 forecast).
• A shortfall of £437.8 million in tuition fee income compared with sector forecasts.
• The anticipated inflation-linked tuition fee uplift from 2026–27 would improve the outlook slightly (providers reporting a deficit would fall to 41 per cent), but the proposed levy on international fees could offset these gains.

Liquidity

• Providers with low liquidity (of less than 30 days) could rise from 16 per cent of the sector in 2025–26 to 26 per cent in 2026–27.

Current financial context

We know that the higher education sector in England is under significant financial pressure. Providers are operating in a challenging economic environment, and are facing risks to their financial viability and sustainability, including under recruitment of students and increased operating costs.

We are closely monitoring the financial sustainability of providers to identify those that may be at higher levels of financial risk, and working with them to understand and assess the extent of the issues and how these are being addressed.

We will continue our work with providers that are facing significant financial difficulties, ensuring they take steps to mitigate risks and to support students to continue their studies.