Official statistics in development

Key performance measure 7

The accuracy of institutions’ forecasts

This KPM measures the sector’s forecast operating cashflow compared to its actual operating cashflow.

‘We are vigilant about safeguarding public money and student fees. We will strengthen our focus on governance, recognising the critical role of effective leadership.’ (The OfS strategy 2025 to 2030)

The OfS receives financial returns from all institutions on the OfS Register, excluding further education colleges, which are monitored by the Department for Education. In recent years, we have seen over-optimistic forecasting, driven largely by international recruitment forecasts that do not materialise.

Institutions that have assumed levels of income that do not materialise may be exposed to financial risk. They may also delay or avoid taking the difficult but necessary decisions required to secure their financial sustainability, increasing the risk that financial challenges become more serious over time.

In response to these challenges, the OfS has worked to strengthen institutions’ financial governance capability.

This KPM measures how accurately the sector forecasts its annual operating cashflow. Operating cashflow is the net amount of cash generated by an organisation’s core operations over the year.

Tracking the accuracy of sector forecasts will help us to understand the impact of our work to strengthen financial governance.

Contact us

If you have any queries, feedback or suggestions about KPM 7, please contact [email protected].

The OfS's icon for its vigilant strategic attitude
Published 26 February 2026

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