Building upon its recently released sector data on how degree classifications have changed over time, new analysis from the Office for Students (OfS) shows the proportion of top grades awarded by institutions has fallen after considerable increases in recent years.
The OfS’s analysis of degree classifications over time found the number of graduates awarded first class degrees fell from 29.6 per cent in 2022-23 to 28.8 per cent in 2023-24 – a decrease of 0.8 percentage points.
The proportion of top grades awarded to students has risen significantly since 2010-11. While the OfS’s sector-level analysis showed this figure is continuing to fall after peaking at 37.7 per cent in 2020-21, the proportion of students awarded first class degrees in 2023-24 (28.8 per cent) is still nearly double that of 2010-11 (15.8 per cent).
Today’s report analyses these graduate attainment rates over time and uses modelling to assess to what extent changes could be statistically accounted for by factors that may influence students’ grades, such as subject of study and students’ entry qualifications.
Based on this modelling, the OfS would expect to see 17.7 per cent of graduates awarded first class degrees in 2023-24. This is 11.1 percentage points lower than the 28.8 per cent of graduates actually awarded first class degrees, meaning that nearly 40 per cent of firsts awarded could not be explained by the statistical model.
The report sets out a range of possible causes for the observed increase, including improvements to teaching and learning. However, the increase may also reflect other factors that could have an inflationary effect on students’ grades, such as changes to degree classification algorithms or to assessment practices.
Today’s analysis also compares the grades awarded by 143 institutions against the sector average and their individual awarding in 2010-11, examining unexplained attainment at a provider level.
Jean Arnold, Deputy Director of Quality at the OfS, said:
‘Today’s report shows that the decade-long increase in the award of top degrees is continuing to slow and reverse.
‘Students, graduates, and employers must have confidence that higher education qualifications represent an accurate assessment of achievement that stands the test of time. We know that institutions have been working hard to ensure the degree classifications they award are credible, and our findings suggest their continued efforts are having the right effect.
‘While unexplained first and upper second class degree attainment has also fallen for the third consecutive year, we remain vigilant to the risk of unexplained increases becoming embedded and undermining public confidence in the value of a degree.
‘As part of this work, we recently published a separate report looking at the potentially inflationary effect of classification algorithms on students’ grades, which set out considerations for institutions making changes to the algorithms they use to determine degree classifications for individual students.
‘We encourage all institutions to continue to review their marking and assessment policies to ensure their awards properly reflect student achievement and protect public confidence in higher education.’
Notes
- The Office for Students is the independent regulator for higher education in England. We are striving to deliver exemplary regulation in the interests of students. Find out more about our new strategy.
- Read our provider-level analysis of degree classifications over time.
- Read our report on bachelors’ degree classification algorithms.
- Headline data was previously published in Sector-level analysis of degree classifications over time: Changes in graduate attainment from 2010-11 to 2023-24.